Telangana’s 17% Rain Deficit Better Than Neighbouring States, SBI Report Shows

Hyderabad: Telangana recorded a 17% rainfall deficit as of August 21, but its monsoon performance was better than that of several major foodgrain-producing states, according to a research note from SBI Research released this week.

Neighbouring Andhra Pradesh reported a much sharper 39% deficit, while Bihar recorded a 41% shortfall. Punjab, a key wheat and rice producer, had a 32% deficit, followed by Karnataka at 22% and Rajasthan at 20%. The data, based on India Meteorological Department (IMD) figures, highlights how the southwest monsoon has been uneven across the country this year.

Telangana’s 17% deficit, however, remains within IMD’s “normal” rainfall category, which allows for a departure of up to 19% below the long-period average. With the state close to slipping into the “deficient” category, rainfall during the remaining weeks of the monsoon will be crucial for water availability and the upcoming rabi season.

National picture and other states

At the national level, rainfall was 13% below normal, with 351 of 741 districts recording deficient or largely deficient rainfall. Other states reporting higher deficits included Kerala at 24%, Assam at 23% and Karnataka at 22%. Meanwhile, Maharashtra recorded a 7% deficit, Madhya Pradesh 10% and Gujarat 3%. West Bengal reported a 5% surplus, while Odisha received 2% excess rainfall.

The data underscores that while Telangana is not facing a severe shortfall yet, the situation warrants close monitoring. Hyderabad, which receives most of its annual rainfall from the southwest monsoon, has seen intermittent showers but no sustained wet spell in recent weeks.

Monsoon outlook and El Nino risk

SBI Research also flagged a weakening monsoon outlook, citing Skymet’s revised 2026 forecast, which lowered expected seasonal rainfall to 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA), from an earlier estimate of 94%. The forecast also put the probability of drought at 70%.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology assessed El Nino conditions as firmly established, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remained neutral as of August 16. SBI Research said El Nino may have a limited impact on kharif production as sowing progress has been satisfactory, but could pose a risk to rabi crops, which depend on residual soil moisture and irrigation.

For Telangana, where agriculture accounts for a significant share of employment and rural livelihoods, the rabi season is particularly important. The state’s reservoirs, including those in the Krishna and Godavari basins, will need adequate inflows from the remaining monsoon weeks to support winter sowing.

Datos clave

What this means for Hyderabad and Telangana

For Hyderabad residents, the rain deficit has not yet caused water supply disruptions, but the Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (HMWSSB) typically monitors reservoir levels closely during deficit years. The city draws water from Osmansagar, Himayatsagar, Singur and Manjira reservoirs, which depend on monsoon replenishment.

For farmers across Telangana, the immediate concern is whether the remaining monsoon weeks will deliver enough rain to fill tanks and reservoirs. If El Nino strengthens further, the state could face a rain-deficient winter, affecting the rabi sowing window.

The Telangana State Agriculture Department and the Disaster Response and Management wing have not issued any advisory as of this report. However, given the monsoon outlook, state agencies may need to prepare contingency plans for water allocation and crop diversification.

Source: Times of India – Hyderabad – “17% rain deficit, yet Telangana fares better” – https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/hyderabad/17-rain-deficit-yet-telangana-fares-better/articleshow/133598454.cms